Articles

18 pieces

April 1, 2026 · Downballot Staff

One Year After Liberation Day, the Tariff Clock Is Still Ticking — Right Into Midterm Season

The Supreme Court struck down Trump's IEEPA tariffs in February. His replacement — a 10% global levy under Section 122 of the Trade Act — expires July 24. That deadline is now a midterm election variable.

tariffs economy house senate 2026 competitive

March 30, 2026 · Downballot Staff

The Iran War Splits Michigan's Democratic Primary Wide Open

El-Sayed's Hasan Piker rallies drew national backlash and a direct rebuke from McMorrow — now the same conflict Sen. Slotkin says is costing Michigan drivers 60 cents a gallon is becoming the race's live wire.

michigan-senate-open haley-stevens michigan senate 2026 primary

March 29, 2026 · Downballot Staff

The NY-17 Primary Is Already a Mess, and Republicans Are Watching

A Democratic candidate's lewd Facebook posts, a new challenger leading in polling, and a fractured primary field — all while Mike Lawler keeps quiet and banks cash.

mike-lawler new-york house 2026 tossup

March 28, 2026 · Downballot Staff

Six-Hour Lines at the World's Busiest Airport — and Three Georgia Republicans Have an Answer: Blame Ossoff

With TSA agents going six weeks without pay and Hartsfield-Jackson near gridlock, Georgia's Republican Senate hopefuls found a political opportunity. The problem: their own party is blocking the fix.

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March 27, 2026 · Downballot Staff

The Ossoff Problem: Republicans Are Saying One Thing in Public and Another in Private

New polling shows Ossoff near 50% in R+3 Georgia — and a Washington Post report this week revealed GOP operatives privately admitting they don't know how to beat him.

jon-ossoff georgia senate 2026 competitive

March 26, 2026 · Downballot Staff

Michigan's Senate Primary Just Got Picked Apart by the Party's Two Wings

In eight days, Warren backed McMorrow and ModSquad backed Stevens. The Michigan primary is now an open proxy war for the soul of the Democratic Party.

michigan-senate-open haley-stevens michigan senate 2026

March 24, 2026 · Downballot Staff

9-0: What the Special Election Scoreboard Means for November

Democrats have flipped nine Republican-held state legislative seats since Trump took office. Republicans have flipped zero. The Pennsylvania specials last week added a wrinkle — but didn't change the story.

pennsylvania special-election house environment 2026

March 23, 2026 · Downballot Staff

The Establishment Picks a Side in Michigan — and It Immediately Gets Messy

ModSquad's endorsement of Haley Stevens on Friday crystallized the Michigan Senate primary's fault lines — and a blown-up Axios correction made it bigger news than it might have been.

haley-stevens michigan senate 2026 primary modsquad

March 22, 2026 · Downballot Staff

Georgia's GOP Senate Primary Is Already a Mess — and Ossoff Is Watching

Trump hasn't picked a candidate, Kemp backed the weakest of the three, and 40% of Republican primary voters are still undecided. Jon Ossoff is keeping his powder dry.

jon-ossoff georgia senate 2026 competitive

March 21, 2026 · Downballot Staff

Brian Fitzpatrick Keeps Winning. Democrats Keep Thinking This Is the Year.

Brian Fitzpatrick has won Bucks County four times in a Biden-won district by being the Republican Democrats keep deciding they can beat next cycle. They can't.

brian-fitzpatrick pennsylvania house 2026 tossup

March 21, 2026 · Downballot Staff

A Democrat Led in MTG's Old District. The Runoff Will Tell Us If It Means Anything.

Shawn Harris finished first in the March 10 special election in Georgia's R+19 14th district — now he faces a Trump-endorsed Republican in an April 7 runoff that could tighten the House majority.

georgia ga-14 house special-election 2026 tossup-adjacent

March 21, 2026 · Downballot Staff

Ossoff Is Running Like He's Already Down — Because He Might Be

Jon Ossoff is fundraising like a man who knows the floor can drop out at any moment — and in post-2024 Georgia, he's right to.

jon-ossoff georgia senate 2026 tossup

March 21, 2026 · Downballot Staff

Democrats Need a Net Gain of 6. These Are the Seats.

Republicans hold the House by a razor margin. Democrats have their target list. The question is whether the political environment in 2026 is enough to flip it.

brian-fitzpatrick mike-lawler tom-suozzi kristen-mcdonald-rivet gabe-vasquez greg-landsman susie-lee marie-gluesenkamp-perez house 2026 tossup

March 21, 2026 · Downballot Staff

MGP Just Voted Against Her Party — Again. That's the Point.

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez's survival strategy in a Trump+12 district is to govern like she actually represents it. Her 2026 race will test whether that's enough.

marie-gluesenkamp-perez washington house 2026 tossup

March 21, 2026 · Downballot Staff

Michigan's Open Senate Seat Is Already a War

Gary Peters is retiring, the NRSC is already spending, and Michigan just flipped to Trump. The most competitive open Senate seat in the country has no candidates yet.

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March 21, 2026 · Downballot Staff

Susie Lee's District Moved Right in 2024. She Won Anyway. What Now?

Susie Lee has won four straight elections in a true tossup district by running better than anyone thought possible. 2026 will test whether that formula still works.

susie-lee nevada house 2026 tossup

March 21, 2026 · Downballot Staff

The New York Suburbs Are Still Angry. Democrats Haven't Fixed That.

Crime, cost of living, and immigration turned the New York suburbs in 2022 and 2024. In March 2026, the conditions that drove that shift haven't gone away.

tom-suozzi mike-lawler new-york house 2026 tossup

March 21, 2026 · Downballot Staff

The 2026 Senate Map Was Always Going to Be This Bad for Democrats

Democrats are defending Georgia, Michigan, New Hampshire, and Minnesota — a class of senators elected in the chaos of 2020 who now face a fundamentally different electorate.

jon-ossoff michigan-senate-open new-hampshire-senate-open minnesota-senate-open senate 2026 democrats