Greg Landsman was elected to Ohio’s 1st Congressional District in 2022, defeating incumbent Steve Chabot — the Republican who had held the seat for most of the previous 26 years — by less than 2 points. He then won reelection in 2024 by more than 9 points, one of the larger overperformances of any competitive Democrat in the country relative to the presidential margin. Trump carried the district; Landsman still won decisively.
Ohio’s 1st is fundamentally the Cincinnati metro — the city itself, its inner suburbs, and portions of Hamilton County. It’s a district with a strong African American population in Cincinnati proper, a growing young professional class in Over-the-Rhine and other revitalized neighborhoods, and white working-class suburbs that have been trending Republican for a decade. The tension between those communities defines the district’s electoral geography.
How He Won by 9 in a Trump District
Landsman’s margin confounded expectations and deserves analysis. He had a well-funded campaign, effective constituent outreach from his first term, and ran against a challenger who failed to consolidate Republican support the way Chabot had. Landsman’s background in education and his Cincinnati City Council work gave him genuine local credibility that national Republicans couldn’t simply attack away. He also benefited from strong turnout in the district’s Black communities and among college-educated suburbanites who voted for Trump elsewhere on the ballot.
The Redistricting Question
Ohio’s congressional maps have been subject to ongoing litigation and may be redrawn before 2026. Any remapping of the Cincinnati area could shift the district’s composition in ways that change the competitive calculus dramatically. This is one of the key uncertainties hanging over Landsman’s reelection bid that doesn’t have a parallel in most House races.
The Republican Case
Republicans will target this race regardless of maps, because a 9-point win in an R+1 district represents a Democrat who has exceeded expectations by enough to invite serious challenge. A well-funded candidate with Hamilton County roots — a former county commissioner, a state legislator, a well-known local businessperson — could run a serious campaign and expect national money to follow.
What to Watch
The map. Then the recruit. If Republicans can draw a more favorable district and find a strong candidate, this race moves from competitive to something more dangerous for Landsman. If maps stay similar and the recruit is weak, his incumbency advantages should hold.