Jeanne Shaheen has been the gravitational center of New Hampshire Democratic politics for three decades — first as governor, then as the state’s first female senator, winning four statewide elections that spanned very different national environments. She beat Scott Brown in 2014, one of the worst Democratic cycles in a generation. Her departure is not just a retirement; it’s the end of an era.
New Hampshire occupies a strange place in the electoral landscape. It’s nominally a blue-leaning state that voted for Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, and Kamala Harris — but only barely. Trump lost it by 7 in 2016, by less than 3 in 2020, and the margins kept shrinking through 2024. The state’s libertarian streak and fiercely independent electorate have never fit neatly into national partisan narratives. That’s exactly what makes it competitive even when Washington is trending in one direction.
The Democratic Field
New Hampshire has a small but capable Democratic bench. Governor Kelly Ayotte — wait, Ayotte is a Republican. The Democratic Party has been anchored by incumbents for years, which means the open-seat field is less developed than in larger states. Congressman Chris Pappas has been mentioned as a natural fit — he holds New Hampshire’s 1st District and has demonstrated statewide appeal. Other potential candidates include state-level officials from the Manchester and Concord areas.
The challenge for Democrats is maintaining the Shaheen coalition of college-educated southern New Hampshire voters, the university towns, and the Manchester working-class neighborhoods. Without Shaheen’s name on the ballot, that coalition needs a new anchor.
The Republican Opportunity
Republicans will likely try to recruit a candidate in the Scott Brown mold — someone with enough crossover appeal to compete in the bedroom communities south of Manchester and in the North Country’s libertarian belt. A candidate too aligned with the national MAGA brand risks losing the independents who decide virtually every close New Hampshire election.
What to Watch
New Hampshire holds the first-in-the-nation primary, which means the candidate field will be scrutinized well before any other state. Whoever emerges from each primary will face an electorate that likes to be surprised — and this race will draw national attention and money far out of proportion to the state’s small population.