Paul LePage served two terms as governor of Maine from 2011 to 2019, won both times with pluralities rather than majorities (Maine didn’t use ranked-choice voting for governor until after he left office), and spent eight years generating controversy that ranged from genuine policy achievement to remarks that dominated the state’s newspaper front pages for the wrong reasons. He left office term-limited, tried to return in 2022 and lost to Democratic Governor Janet Mills by 11 points, and is now attempting a different kind of comeback: a congressional seat in the district Jared Golden just vacated.
LePage grew up poor in Lewiston, speaking French as his first language in a Franco-American community that has been one of Maine’s cultural touchstones for generations. He put himself through school, built a career in business management (most prominently as general manager of Marden’s, a Maine discount retail chain), got into local politics in Waterville, and eventually won a Republican primary by presenting himself as exactly what he was: a blunt, working-class businessman who didn’t talk like a politician.
The Comeback Logic
Maine’s 2nd Congressional District is exactly the kind of place where LePage’s political identity resonates. It’s rural, working-class, French-Canadian in its northern reaches, and has moved sharply toward Trump over the past three cycles. Jared Golden held it for four terms through a combination of genuine personal credibility, a voting record that bore little resemblance to the national Democratic Party, and Maine’s ranked-choice voting system. LePage is betting that without Golden, the district reverts to its presidential-level Republican lean.
He’s probably right about the structural argument. The question is whether LePage himself is the right vehicle. He’s 77, carries a decade’s worth of gubernatorial controversy, and lost a 2022 statewide race by 11 points. A candidate running on working-class authenticity who has been a statewide figure for two decades is a more complicated proposition than a fresh face with similar politics.
Trump endorsed him, which matters in a Republican primary and matters with the district’s base. His fundraising from within Maine suggests genuine on-the-ground support rather than national-money-driven candidacy.
Against the Democratic Nominee
Democrats are running Matthew Dunlap, Maine’s state auditor, alongside several other candidates in the June 9 primary. Dunlap has the backing of Mike Michaud, who held this seat for more than a decade before running for governor. He’s credible but lacks Golden’s particular kind of biography.
LePage’s argument against Dunlap, or any Democratic nominee, is the district’s own voting history: Trump won it in 2024, as he did in 2016 and 2020. The district’s one electoral vote went Democratic in three consecutive presidential cycles before finally reverting, and that reversion signals a district that no longer has the political composition that kept Golden viable. Without a candidate of Golden’s specific profile, Democrats are trying to hold a seat in a district that has moved fundamentally rightward.
What to Watch
Whether Maine’s ranked-choice voting system changes the calculus in either the primary or general, and whether the Democratic nominee can make LePage’s own controversial record the story of the race. LePage’s decade-old controversies are well-documented but also well-priced-in by Maine voters — they elected him twice knowing exactly who he was. A campaign that simply relitigates his gubernatorial years will not be enough to overcome the district’s structural tilt.