Susie Lee has won Nevada’s 3rd Congressional District four times — in 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2024 — each time by margins that made national operatives nervous. Her 2024 win by 2.7 points in a district that has a nominal D+1 rating but voted more like a true tossup at the presidential level means she has never had a comfortable cycle and doesn’t expect one in 2026 either.
Nevada-3 covers the southern and western suburbs of Las Vegas — Henderson, parts of the Las Vegas Strip’s residential surroundings, and the communities where casino workers and hospitality industry employees actually live. The district’s demographic complexity is significant: it’s one of the most diverse congressional districts in the country, with large Latino, Asian American, and Filipino American populations that don’t neatly sort into the patterns national analysts apply to “the suburbs.”
The Nevada Political Ecosystem
Nevada politics runs through the Culinary Workers Union Local 226 in ways that are unusual even by union-heavy standards. The Culinary is one of the most sophisticated political organizations in the country — multilingual, highly organized, and capable of turning out voters in communities that other campaigns can’t reach. Lee benefits from Culinary support, and losing it would be devastating.
The gaming industry is also deeply embedded in Nevada’s political economy. Lee has had to navigate the competing interests of a major employer — the casinos — and the workers those casinos employ. That balancing act has given her a genuinely moderate political identity that isn’t simply transactional.
The 2026 Threat Environment
Republicans will recruit aggressively in Nevada-3. The district has a presidential-level Republican lean that Lee has consistently outrun through candidate quality and organizing, but in a midterm with different turnout dynamics, that outperformance is harder to guarantee. A well-funded Republican challenger with Las Vegas-specific credibility — a former county commissioner, a successful local businessperson — could push the margin closer than Lee would like.
What to Watch
Culinary endorsement timing and intensity will signal how much the union views this race as a priority. Lee’s ability to raise money early — before the national environment fully crystallizes — will determine whether she can deter the strongest potential Republican challengers from entering. Nevada’s unique early-voting culture and strong ballot-banking operations will matter enormously in the final weeks.