Kathy Hochul became governor in August 2021 when Andrew Cuomo resigned under pressure from a sexual harassment investigation. She had been Lieutenant Governor for six years — a position with almost no power in New York’s governing structure — and most Albany insiders underestimated her.
She has spent the years since proving that assessment wrong, while also demonstrating the limits of proving people wrong.
The 2022 Election
Hochul was expected to win her first full term comfortably. She won by 6 points over Republican Lee Zeldin — the closest New York governor’s race in 20 years, in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by 2-to-1. Crime and public safety dominated the race, and Zeldin’s campaign successfully nationalized those issues in a way that moved New York suburban voters.
The near-loss shaped her subsequent governance: she has governed more cautiously on criminal justice than her party’s left flank wanted, and has prioritized issues (housing, economic development) where she can build a broader coalition.
Real Estate and the Housing Crisis
Hochul has made housing her signature issue — and stumbled on it. Her proposal to mandate local zoning changes that would require 800,000 new units over a decade collapsed in the state legislature in 2023, killed by suburban Democrats protecting single-family zoning in their districts.
The failure illustrated New York’s governing challenge: the state has a severe housing shortage, a Democratic supermajority that talks about affordability, and a political structure where suburban members have veto power over the reforms that would actually fix the problem.
2026
Hochul enters 2026 in a stronger position than 2022, but “stronger than 2022” is a low bar. She’ll face a Republican challenger in an environment where national Democrats are still sorting out their message after 2024. The crime issue hasn’t disappeared. Her real estate donor base makes progressive primary challenges a recurring possibility.
What They’re Watching
Whether Hochul can convert her housing push into a tangible legislative win before the 2026 cycle, and whether national Democratic headwinds affect a New York governor’s race in ways that would have been unthinkable a decade ago.