Cook PVI
D+12
Last Margin
5.8%
Candidates
Kathy Hochul
Governor
New York's first female governor took office during a scandal, won a surprisingly close election, and is now running in an environment where New York Democrats can no longer take anything for granted.
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Bruce Blakeman
Governor
Nassau County's executive won a Trump endorsement and the Republican nomination for New York governor — trailing Hochul by 20 points but representing a party that knows New York can surprise.
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Coverage
2026-03-21The New York Suburbs Are Still Angry. Democrats Haven't Fixed That.
Crime, cost of living, and immigration turned the New York suburbs in 2022 and 2024. In March 2026, the conditions that drove that shift haven't gone away.
The NY-17 Primary Is Already a Mess, and Republicans Are Watching
A Democratic candidate's lewd Facebook posts, a new challenger leading in polling, and a fractured primary field — all while Mike Lawler keeps quiet and banks cash.