Tom Suozzi spent 12 years in Congress representing Long Island before resigning in 2022 to mount an unsuccessful primary challenge to Governor Kathy Hochul. He returned to the same seat — NY-3 — in a February 2024 special election triggered by the expulsion of George Santos, and won by 8 points in a race that had been called a national bellwether. The result was interpreted as evidence that Democrats could compete on Long Island even after the party’s disastrous 2022 cycle in New York.
NY-3 covers parts of northern Nassau County and portions of Queens — affluent suburban communities where immigration, crime, property taxes, and the SALT deduction cap animate voters more than most national Democratic issues. It voted for Trump in 2024 after voting for Biden in 2020, putting Suozzi in the same position as many suburban Democrats who are governing in communities their party is simultaneously losing at the presidential level.
The SALT Warrior
Suozzi has made restoration of the state and local tax deduction cap — the SALT cap — his signature issue. For his constituents in Long Island’s high-tax, high-income suburbs, the $10,000 cap enacted in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act represents a real economic grievance. His willingness to fight publicly on SALT has given him credibility with Republican-leaning homeowners who view the cap as an attack on blue-state residents.
This is smart positioning but it also puts him in the center of a politically complicated negotiation where Democratic and Republican priorities don’t align cleanly.
The Immigration Contrast
Suozzi has been explicit about supporting stricter border enforcement — a position that reflects his district’s politics but sometimes puts him at odds with progressive Democrats nationally. His rhetoric on crime and immigration is deliberately modulated to appeal to the Long Island voters who swung sharply Republican in 2020 and 2022.
The 2026 Race
Republicans will view NY-3 as gettable, particularly after Trump carried the district in 2024. The NRCC will look for a challenger who can capitalize on any national headwinds and the fundamental partisan lean of the presidential electorate. Suozzi’s incumbency advantage — he knows the district, has the name recognition, and has the donor base — gives him a meaningful head start.
What to Watch
Whether Suozzi’s moderate positioning on SALT, crime, and immigration translates into the kind of ticket-splitting that can survive a potentially adverse national environment. His margin in 2026 will be one of the clearest signals of whether suburban Long Island is genuinely competitive or trending back toward Republicans.