Cook PVI
D+1
Last Margin
6.3%
Candidates
Mike Lawler
US House — New York 17th District
Mike Lawler is everything House Republicans want in a swing district — moderate, media-savvy, and hard to demonize — but he's defending a Harris+0.6 district in a potential blue wave year.
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Tom Suozzi
US House — New York 3rd District
Tom Suozzi won a nationally watched special election in 2024 in a Trump district — his 2026 race will test whether that was a fluke or the start of something durable on Long Island.
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Coverage
2026-03-21Democrats Need a Net Gain of 6. These Are the Seats.
Republicans hold the House by a razor margin. Democrats have their target list. The question is whether the political environment in 2026 is enough to flip it.
The New York Suburbs Are Still Angry. Democrats Haven't Fixed That.
Crime, cost of living, and immigration turned the New York suburbs in 2022 and 2024. In March 2026, the conditions that drove that shift haven't gone away.
The NY-17 Primary Is Already a Mess, and Republicans Are Watching
A Democratic candidate's lewd Facebook posts, a new challenger leading in polling, and a fractured primary field — all while Mike Lawler keeps quiet and banks cash.